Polymarket

Polymarket is based on the Polygon blockchain and has rapidly grown to the point at which it now handles more than $2.76 billion per month in trading volume, with some recent months climbing as high as $10 billion. Part of this popularity is undoubtedly due to the fact that it allows people to speculate on the outcomes of real world events, rather than making investments in traditional stocks and shares or placing bets on a limited set of sporting events.

After all, there aren’t many bookies that would allow people to speculate on how many tweets Elon Musk will post this week or when OpenAI will IPO.

Since its 2020 founding in New York, Polymarket has seen particular popularity amongst Irish users, who appreciate the fact that it’s so different from traditional bookies. Instead of fixed odds, users can buy and sell shares based on the probability of something happening, with shares valued at between $0 and $1. The closer to $1 they’re valued at, the more probable the market believes the outcome is. 

This article explains how Polymarket Ireland works and why it’s become so popular. 

Inside Polymarket: How the Platform Works 

By now, the odds are (pun intended) that you want to know a little more about how does Polymarket work. 

First of all, prices are set by an automated market maker (AMM), which uses the law of supply and demand to determine prices. Users place trades on Polygon using the USDC stablecoin, which is known for maintaining its value over time, and a smart contract is used to settle each transaction at the end.

At that point, anyone who made a winning bet earns $1, while those who made losing bets don’t receive anything. This ensures that all of the money people stake is redistributed amongst users. You’re probably wondering how does Polymarket make money, and there’s a simple answer to that: trading fees. It takes a small cut from every transaction.

Available Markets

Taking a look at Polymarket analytics shows that it covers a much larger range of betting options than a traditional bookmaker and a casino combined. As a prediction market, its types of bets range from political news to cryptocurrencies, sporting events, business and tech and international news. There are so many event categories to choose from that you’re sure to find something of interest to you.

If you want to know more about the wider marketplace, consider using a market data tool like Hashdive or Polysights. They’ll give you a much better view of market trends.

Politics

This is one of Polymarket’s USPs because it allows people to speculate on geopolitics and election markets in a way that can’t be done anywhere else. If you’re interested in politics and you follow US, Irish and EU elections, it’s a pretty good place to start. 

On top of candidate odds, Polymarket users can bet on government decisions, parliamentary votes and the results of internal and international negotiations. It can literally be as simple as something like, “Will Donald Trump apologise?”

In politics betting markets, the key is to react quickly. Events move at a rapid pace, and if you’re not up-to-date with the latest trends, you’re going to struggle to make money.

Economics

In this section, you can speculate on decisions made by organisations like the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), including moves around whether to change interest rates.

The most skilled users tap into Polymarket analytics to monitor probability shifts that could signal wider trends in global financial markets. For example, longer-term markets can cover whether there’s going to be a recession or how a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to change. 

Cryptocurrencies

Unsurprisingly for a site that relies on cryptocurrencies to operate, Polymarket also allows its users to speculate on the prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins. They can speculate on the valuations of these currencies (e.g. “Will Bitcoin hit $XXX,XXX by the end of the month?”) or on the outcomes of crypto regulation and industry events like ETF approvals.

Because of that, if you’re the kind of person who has to know about every new token listing or who gets news alerts about protocol upgrades and the crypto industry, Polymarket can be a decent site to turn to. 

Sports

Of course, crypto and political betting isn’t all that Polymarket is known for. It’s also able to compete with traditional betting thanks to its sports prediction market, which allows users to stake on everything from the outcomes of big games to whether your favourite team is going to sign that new player that everyone’s talking about.

That’s one of the big advantages that comes from it not being a traditional sports betting platform. Sure, you can bet on who’s going to win Premier League or Championship football games, but you can also focus on individual achievements and wider club decisions.

Pop Culture and Entertainment

The platform is also able to target a brand new audience of potential gamblers thanks to its pop culture section, which includes awards markets such as Polymarket Oscars, which sees huge betting activity around the Academy Awards. 

But it’s not just awards ceremonies like the Grammys and the BAFTAs that the site covers. Users speculate on all sorts of pop culture events, from the outcomes of TV shows to box office performances for new movies. If it’s one of those pop culture moments that’s got everyone talking, the chances are that it’s covered on Polymarket.

Business and Tech

This section covers everything from mergers to new product launches and acquisitions by giants like Apple, Google and Meta. Smaller, newer companies are also thrown into the mix, especially when it’s getting close to being time for their IPO.

Corporate decisions are a particular hot topic because many Polymarket users feel that they can get to know how any given tech mogul might react in a particular situation, often by keeping an eye on their social media presence.

International Events

Finally, traders on the platform can speculate on the latest international crises or breaking geopolitical news. As you can imagine, the Polymarket Iran markets are particularly active because the global news cycle ensures there’s constantly something new to discuss. 

Other society events to consider include everything from natural disasters to cultural phenomena like the Eurovision Song Contest. As with everything else on the platform, you can follow the golden rule: if people are talking about it, you can speculate on it. 

Using Polymarket from Ireland

We’ve answered the question of “how does Polymarket work?” at a high level, but if you’re looking to sign up and get started then you might still have some questions. Here’s our simple five-step process for users who want to get started. 

1. Set up your crypto wallet using MetaMask or Coinbase.
2. Buy USDC on an exchange like Coinbase or Kraken.
3. Transfer your USDC to your wallet, then connect your wallet to the Polygon network and the Polymarket platform. 
4. Choose a market that you’re interested in and start trading. 
5. Wait for the resolution or close early by selling your shares back into the market.

Of course, this is a simplified take on how to go about things, but it should be enough to help Polymarket Ireland users get started. And we’ve got plenty more tips and tricks to come.

Accessing Polymarket from Ireland

The good news for Polymarket Ireland users is that there are no geo-restrictions in place, meaning the site remains fully accessible from the country. 

The fact that the platform relies on USDC and crypto wallets as opposed to bank accounts means that it’s easily accessible for Irish users. Ireland isn’t on the list of blocked jurisdictions, nor is access prohibited by the site’s terms of service. 

Now, you might still be asking, “Is Polymarket safe?” Security is built in by default thanks to the platform’s use of smart contracts as opposed to a central operator who has to settle trades. Even if the platform itself went bust, the money would still be there in the smart contracts.

Is Polymarket Legal?

There’s no simple answer to this one: the service’s legal status depends heavily on the jurisdiction in question. But that’s also oversimplifying things. 

That’s because different jurisdictions have different regulations, and so the real question should be, “Where is Polymarket legal?” Let’s get started with Ireland. Since it's not a traditional licensed bookmaker, the platform operates in something of a legal grey area. However, with the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) now stepping up enforcement, crypto prediction markets are facing much tighter scrutiny. 

Throughout the world, there are some countries where it operates freely and others where it’s restricted. There are several blocked countries. If you’re particularly concerned about Polymarket Ireland, then consider seeking legal advice, and be sure to speak to your accountant if needed, as any profits may be taxable. 

Risk Factors to Know About

We’ve already answered the question of “Is Polymarket safe?” and concluded that the platform remains accessible for Irish users, as well as in many other countries around the world. 

The real risk factors revolve around capital gains tax and income tax in Ireland, depending on how much money you’re making and how it’s viewed by the Revenue Commissioners. When it comes to digital assets, crypto transactions are normally treated as taxable events, and users may still be expected to pay tax even when profits remain stored as crypto assets. 

You should also bear in mind that there’s no deposit protection in place for Polymarket Ireland users, and there’s no guaranteed compensation if a smart contract vulnerability is discovered. There are also ethical considerations to think about when it comes to speculating on wars and tragedies. 

Irish Bookies vs. Polymarket

The prediction market is a great place for political betting and it offers an alternative to traditional bookies like Paddy Power, BoyleSports and Betfair. The thing to remember is that each of these alternatives is a licensed bookmaker, which means that they’re also much more heavily regulated. The same can’t be said for Polymarket.

Politics betting with traditional bookies means odds that are set by operators, rather than the decentralised odds that Polymarket has to offer. However, the platform isn’t covered by the same consumer protection rules, responsible gambling requirements and financial safeguards.

That might not mean too much to the average trader, but the typical Irish Polymarket user will want to weigh up whether those risk factors are outweighed by the advantages. It all comes down to how much you value access to a broader range of markets and order book pricing. 

Alternatives to Polymarket

Today, you can pick from a range of prediction market platforms, each with a distinct offering and subject to varying regulations. Some Polymarket alternatives operate as strictly regulated financial exchanges, while others focus on gamified forecasts or fully decentralised models. 

The key thing to consider is what you plan to use the site for. Crypto betting is very different to putting a few euros down each year on the Grand National. Put some thought into licensing, available markets and deposit methods before you commit to any given provider. 

Kalshi

If you’re looking for an alternative to Polymarket then the most obvious place to turn is to Kalshi, which is CFTC regulated (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) in the United States. Unlike its decentralised competitor, this is a centralised prediction market that requires strict Know Your Customer (KYC) checks and restricts its access mostly to US users.

You’ll know from when we answered the question of “where is Polymarket legal?” that it’s restricted in the United States. Kalshi is able to compete because it has a different business model, although it still covers similar markets such as politics, economics, weather and sports.

Both sites are largely legal throughout the world, but Kalshi goes out of its way to be fully compliant within the UK. For Irish users, it’s still a legal platform, but it can be a little more difficult to sign up because of its KYC checks.

Other Prediction Market Platforms

By now, you should have a good idea of what is Polymarket and why you might want to use it, and unless you live in the United States, you’re probably not sold on Kalshi. Because of that, we’re going to leave you with a few final prediction market alternatives:

• Manifold: Uses free play tokens rather than real money, making it a great place to practice.
• Metaculus: A non-betting forecasting service without allowing you to put your money down.
• PredictIt: Mostly US-based and closed off to Irish users.

But ultimately, none of these can truly compete with Polymarket, because they generally lack real-money features or use geo-locking to shut out Irish users. If you live in Ireland and you want to stake on a prediction market, Polymarket is the only real choice.